Imagine if the 2016 NHL Draft could be redone today. How would the picks change? It’s a fascinating thought experiment, especially when you consider the unexpected trajectories of players like Tage Thompson and Brandon Hagel. Personally, I think this kind of retrospective analysis reveals as much about the unpredictability of player development as it does about scouting acumen.
The Unstoppable Force: Auston Matthews
One thing that immediately stands out is Auston Matthews' dominance. He’s not just the top pick in 2016; he’d still be the top pick today. What makes this particularly fascinating is how he’s redefined the role of a franchise center. His 69-goal season in 2023-24 wasn’t just a personal achievement—it was a statement about the evolving expectations for elite players. In my opinion, Matthews is the modern prototype of the 'complete' player: a goal-scorer who also excels in the defensive zone and international play. What many people don’t realize is that his success in Switzerland as a teenager was a harbinger of his NHL dominance.
The Leap of Tage Thompson
Now, let’s talk about Tage Thompson. Jumping from the 26th pick to the 3rd is more than just a statistical anomaly. This raises a deeper question: How did so many teams miss on him? A detail that I find especially interesting is his trade to Buffalo for Ryan O’Reilly. At the time, it seemed like a lopsided deal for St. Louis. In hindsight, it’s a masterclass in identifying untapped potential. Thompson’s 47-goal season in 2022-23 wasn’t just a breakout—it was a redefinition of what a power forward can be in today’s NHL.
The Undrafted Hero: Brandon Hagel
Brandon Hagel’s story is even more remarkable. Going from the 6th round to the 6th overall pick is the kind of narrative Hollywood would reject as too implausible. What this really suggests is that the traditional draft process has blind spots, especially for players who develop later. Hagel’s 0.83 points per game is impressive, but what’s truly striking is his ability to thrive in Tampa Bay’s high-pressure system. If you take a step back and think about it, his journey underscores the importance of organizational fit over raw draft position.
The Broader Implications
This redraft isn’t just about individual players—it’s about the larger trends in the NHL. The rise of players like Alex DeBrincat (39th to 5th) and Jesper Bratt (162nd to 12th) highlights the growing value of skill over size. From my perspective, this reflects a league-wide shift toward speed and creativity. However, it also raises concerns about the scouting process. Are teams too focused on physical attributes at the expense of hockey IQ?
The Future of Drafting
What does this mean for future drafts? Personally, I think we’ll see more emphasis on late-blooming players and international leagues. The success of players like Filip Gustavsson (55th to 11th) shows that development paths are far less linear than we assume. In my opinion, teams that can identify these non-traditional prospects will have a significant edge in the coming years.
Final Thoughts
Redrafts are more than just exercises in hindsight—they’re windows into the complexities of player development and team strategy. Matthews remaining at No. 1 is no surprise, but the leaps of Thompson and Hagel force us to rethink how we evaluate talent. What makes this particularly fascinating is how it challenges our assumptions about potential, opportunity, and the very nature of success in the NHL. If you take a step back and think about it, the 2016 redraft isn’t just about who got it right—it’s about who got it wrong and why that matters.
